May 3, 2008
Gallup Daily: Democratic Horse Race Neck-and-Neck at 47%
Clinton still stronger than Obama versus McCain
PRINCETON, NJ -- Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are tied at 47% in the preferences of national Democrats for their party's presidential nomination.
This is based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from April 30-May 2, and is the tenth consecutive day the Democratic candidates have been statistically tied in national preferences. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)
There has been no evidence of significant momentum for either candidate since Obama's lead in early April collapsed following Clinton's victory in the April 22 Pennsylvania primary and amidst renewed controversy over Obama's association with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. However, that could change if the next wave of upcoming primaries delivers any major surprises or otherwise clarifies whether Clinton or Obama is the stronger candidate.
The four delegates chosen Saturday in Guam's Democratic caucuses aren't important to either candidate's delegate count. However, the fact that both campaigns are committing resources to this tiny election -- and that the national media is providing unprecedented coverage of it -- suggests the winner of this U.S. territory will be able to claim some limited bragging rights leading into Tuesday's major primaries in North Carolina and Indiana.
As Gallup reported Friday, John McCain has now moved into a significant lead over Obama among national registered voters for the general election, while he about ties with Clinton. Today's figures, based on interviewing conducted April 28-May 2, remain identical, with McCain leading Obama 48% to 42%, and McCain edging out Clinton by one point, 46% to 45%.
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Survey Methods
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The Democratic nomination results are based on combined data from April 30-May 2, 2008. For results based on this sample of 1,227 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
The general election results are based on combined data from April 28-May 2, 2008. For results based on this sample of 4,399 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.To provide feedback or suggestions about how to improve Gallup.com, please e-mail feedback@gallup.com.
Gallup Daily: Clinton and Obama Remain Tied at 47%
Clinton remains slightly ahead of McCain in general election
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking finds that national Democratic voters' preferences for their party's nomination remain evenly split, with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton each receiving 47% support.
These results, based on April 24-26 polling, are the second report in which all interviews have been conducted after Clinton's Tuesday Pennsylvania primary win, and suggest that Democratic voters are -- for the moment at least -- divided right down the middle as to which candidate they most want to represent their party in November's general election. Obama led the race for a number of days prior to Pennsylvania. Clinton has now erased his lead, but so far has not been able to translate her primary win -- and the subsequent media coverage of her "never say die" campaigning -- into a lead of her own. The close nature of the race at this point gives even more importance to the outcome of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries on May 6. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here).
Clinton maintains her slight 47% to 44% advantage over John McCain in general election preferences among national registered voters in the latest April 22-26 results. Obama and McCain are tied at 45% each. -- Frank Newport
April 19, 2008
Gallup Daily: Clinton 46%, Obama 45%
General election races remain tight
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows that Hillary Clinton now receives 46% of the support of Democrats nationally, compared to 45% for Barack Obama, marking the first time Obama has not led in Gallup's daily tracking since March 18-20.
These results are based on interviewing conducted April 16-18, including two days of interviewing after the contentious Wednesday night debate in Philadelphia and the media focus that followed. Support for Hillary Clinton has been significantly higher in both of these post-debate nights of interviewing than in recent weeks. The two Democratic candidates are now engaged in intensive campaigning leading up to Tuesday's Pennsylvania primary and are under a continual and hot media spotlight, increasing the chances for change in the views of Democrats in the days ahead. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)
There has been no change in the general election trial heats, with Obama's margin over Republican John McCain at 45% to 44% among registered voters nationally, and Clinton's margin at 46% to 44%. -- Frank Newport
April 15, 2008
Gallup Daily: Obama 51%, Clinton 40%
Both Democratic candidates have 46% to 44% margins over McCain
PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama is maintaining his lead over Hillary Clinton among Democrats nationally in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking, with a 51% to 40% margin in the April 12-14 average.
The current 11 percentage point lead is the largest for Obama this year, and marks the ninth consecutive day in which Obama has led Clinton by a statistically significant margin. The current Gallup Poll Daily tracking average is based on interviewing conducted Saturday, Sunday and Monday -- after the initial reports of Obama's controversial remarks about "bitter" small-town residents began to be reported in the news media.
April 7, 2008
Gallup Daily: Obama Moves to 9-point Lead Over Clinton
McCain, Obama remain tied in general election trial heat
PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama has gained support in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report for April 4-6, and now leads Hillary Clinton by a statistically significant margin, 52% to 43%.
Obama's current 52% support level matches his highest of the year, although his margin over Clinton was slightly larger, at 52% to 42%, in March 27-29 polling. So far this year Obama has been unable to sustain a significant lead over Clinton for more than a few days. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)
April 4, 2008
Gallup Daily: Obama by 5 Points Over Clinton
McCain has a 1-percentage point advantage in general election preferences
PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama holds a 5-percentage point advantage over Hillary Clinton in national Democratic voters' nomination preferences, at 49% to 44%.
Obama's current margin, based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviews conducted April 1-3, is a slight improvement over the 3-point edge he held in the prior two releases.
April 1, 2008
Gallup Daily: Obama 49%, Clinton 45%
McCain has slight edge over both Democrats
PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows a closer Democratic nomination race than has been the case in recent days, with 49% of Democratic voters nationwide saying they are most likely to support Barack Obama for the party's presidential nomination and 45% choosing Hillary Clinton.
March 28, 2008
Gallup Daily: Obama Back Into Lead in Democratic Race
McCain enjoys advantage in general election trial heat
PRINCETON, NJ -- Today's Gallup Poll Daily tracking update finds Barack Obama with an eight percentage point advantage over Hillary Clinton (50% to 42%), this gives him a statistically significant advantage for the first time since before the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy.
Obama last held a significant lead over Clinton in March 11-13 polling, just before Wright's controversial sermons came to light and put his former parishioner on the defensive. Clinton seemed to benefit from the Wright flap, moving into the lead in two consecutive days of tracking releases (based on March 16-18 and March 17-19 polling). That lead quickly dissipated and the two candidates retreated into a statistical dead heat, where they have been for much of the recent campaign. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 2, 2008, click here.)
March 27, 2008
Gallup Daily: Obama Now at 48% to Clinton 44%
McCain remains tied with Obama, Clinton
PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama has edged up in the preferences of national Democratic voters, and now has a 48% to 44% advantage over Hillary Clinton.
Obama's four percentage point advantage in today's March 24-26 average is his largest in Gallup Poll Daily tracking since he led Clinton by 50% to 44% in the March 11-13 average. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 2, 2008, click here.)
Voters' preferences in two hypothetical November general election matchups remain close, with John McCain at 47% to Clinton's 44%, and McCain's 45% to Obama's 44%. The difference between McCain's 3-point advantage over Clinton as opposed to his 1-point advantage over Obama is not statistically significant, but marks one of the few times when the two races have not had either identical gaps or gaps only a point different. -- Frank Newport
March 25
Gallup Daily: Obama and Clinton Remain Nearly Tied
General election looks too close to call for now
PRINCETON, NJ -- For the fourth consecutive Gallup Poll Daily tracking report Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are nearly tied in the preferences of national Democratic voters, earning 47% and 45% of the vote, respectively.
Today's results are based on interviews conducted March 21-22 and March 24, with no interviews conducted Easter Sunday, March 23.
While the Democrats' battle for delegates continues to be fought on a state-by-state basis, the national preferences of Democratic voters could be an important factor in whom the superdelegates to the Democratic National Convention this summer choose to support, and thus in the outcome of the race. At the moment, neither Obama nor Clinton has a significant edge. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 2, 2008, click here.)
March 25, 2008
Gallup Daily: Obama and Clinton Remain Nearly Tied
General election looks too close to call for now
PRINCETON, NJ -- For the fourth consecutive Gallup Poll Daily tracking report Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are nearly tied in the preferences of national Democratic voters, earning 47% and 45% of the vote, respectively.
March 24, 2008
Gallup Daily: Obama and Clinton Back to a Tie
McCain continues to hold slight edge in preferences for the fall
PRINCETON, NJ -- The Democratic nomination battle -- having undergone significant shifts last week during the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy -- is now back to a virtual tie between Barack Obama (favored by 47% of national Democratic voters), and Hillary Clinton (chosen by 46%).
Today's results are based on interviews conducted in the three days prior to Easter Sunday, March 20-22. The results confirm Gallup's March 22 report showing that Clinton's recent lead in the race -- apparently fueled by controversy dogging the Obama campaign over the Rev. Jeremiah Wright -- had evaporated.
